cross-posted from: https://mastodon.online/users/hallenbeck/statuses/111293316231491706
I’ve made an updated graphic based on feedback. Thanks to @nooeh@lemmy.world for the critique. Updated graphic here:
https://thelastboyscout.uk/assets/img/son_xg_stats.webp
Is Son one of the best finishers EVER? Let’s look at some data. 👇
We use actual goals minus expected goals (xG) as a proxy for finishing skill. Players who consistently score more than their xG means they are scoring goals other players would miss. Generally, only the most elite goalscorers *consistently* outperform their xG.
And I can find no player who consistently beats Son. It’s astonishing.
Can you find anyone better at elite level?
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Would you say he’s THE most elite finisher, though? He’s definitely up there when comparing the data of his peers. That’s what I mean but underrated. He takes fewer shots than the others, so that could be skewing things. But then again, if you look at other players who take a similar number of shots, they don’t overperform like Son consistently does. I don’t know, he seems to be a bit of a outlier. I can’t find any other player like him. Will be very interesting to see what his numbers are like at the end of this season with him playing as a 9 and without Kane. Will he still overperform?
Son has impressive overperformance of xG but that graphic has very suspect math. Just based off the raw Goals and xG numbers from the graphic:
- Son had a total of 92 goals from 17-18 to 23-24 with an xG of 65.8. That’s an overperformance of 40%.
- Kane had a total of 144 goals from 17-18 to 23-24 with xG of 119.2. That’s an overperformance of 21%.
- Messi had a total of 148 goals from 17-18 to 23-24 with xG of 120.5. That’s an overperformance of 23%.
- Mbappe had a total of 156 goals from 17-18 to 23-24 with xG of 136.7. That’s an overperformance of 14%.
This summing of xG from season to season and averaging of xG from season to season is total BS. Especially considering some of the injury plagued seasons by both players they played very few games, for instance Messi this year.
So yes, Son is a great finisher but please don’t bring this fraudulent math and claim he’s so head and shoulders above everyone else. Also, an argument can be made that scorers lose efficiency when they attempt higher volume, so I’d like to see him replicate that efficiency with a higher goal output.
Lastly, here’s a chart with Messi’s goals and xG so we can compare in the same age range (25-31).
From 12-13 to 18-19 Messi had a total of 250 goals with an xG of 185.02. That’s an overperformance of 35% with more than twice the output. Obviously it’s debatable but I think peak Messi is a better finisher than Son, and current Messi is not too far behind son despite being 5 years older.
