The trends show that after 2015 things started to trend upward from larceny and thrift to homicide.
Yes, but why would you assume that has anything to do with police reform? It was infinitesimal before 2020 anyway, and once it started even to a small degree, it would have been mixed in with so many confounding factors that I’m not sure how much you could even get out of the analysis without a lot more detail and number-crunching. I would suspect that most of the trends you’re seeing throughout the entire time reflect underlying things in society and world events, and nothing to do with policing in any respect.
I’m definitely going over averages because what else would I do? There’d be no point to going in and looking at individual municipalities.
Why not? How is looking at the global average better than breaking it down to municipalities that did a lot of police reform, and ones that didn’t, and comparing the trends between the two (during the same time period to reduce the impact of other confounding factors)? That, to me, sounds like the precise exact opposite of “no point to.” That sounds like a better way to do the analysis.
I think the average is to a pretty good job of explaining that defunding slave catchers didn’t really put a dent in the crime levels that the slave catchers would want you to believe.
Oh, yeah. Got it. That part makes sense. I sort of glossed over things by saying “you’re going to get more crime” if you defund the police… it’s a lot more complex than that. The point that I guess I was trying to make, was that the basic function of policing (deterring crime) is something you want to have in your society. If that’s not what the police are doing, then fix that, don’t “punish” them but keep them around in the same role just after you have “punished” them.
But yeah, if you were saying that I was feeding into a stereotype that police reform always increases crime, you’re 100% right. I should have made a more nuanced point and figured out a more nuanced way to say it. What I literally said, is often not true (in my non-data-backed opinion).
Yes, but why would you assume that has anything to do with police reform? It was infinitesimal before 2020 anyway, and once it started even to a small degree, it would have been mixed in with so many confounding factors that I’m not sure how much you could even get out of the analysis without a lot more detail and number-crunching. I would suspect that most of the trends you’re seeing throughout the entire time reflect underlying things in society and world events, and nothing to do with policing in any respect.
Why not? How is looking at the global average better than breaking it down to municipalities that did a lot of police reform, and ones that didn’t, and comparing the trends between the two (during the same time period to reduce the impact of other confounding factors)? That, to me, sounds like the precise exact opposite of “no point to.” That sounds like a better way to do the analysis.
Why do you think that?
I’m just saying police reform doesn’t really seem to have much to do with crime rates. So may as well reform!
Oh, yeah. Got it. That part makes sense. I sort of glossed over things by saying “you’re going to get more crime” if you defund the police… it’s a lot more complex than that. The point that I guess I was trying to make, was that the basic function of policing (deterring crime) is something you want to have in your society. If that’s not what the police are doing, then fix that, don’t “punish” them but keep them around in the same role just after you have “punished” them.
But yeah, if you were saying that I was feeding into a stereotype that police reform always increases crime, you’re 100% right. I should have made a more nuanced point and figured out a more nuanced way to say it. What I literally said, is often not true (in my non-data-backed opinion).