krellor

I need to start using old batteries in my bathroom scale.

Ants are the OG cooperative agent algorithms. Simulating ants use of pheromones to implement stigmergy path finding is a classic computer science algorithm.

The TPM requirement, I agree seemed a bit much without enough warning to the hardware industry. It’s all the more puzzling because it is trivial to install with the TPM requirement disabled.

That being said, I’ve done tech support forever ago, and I still help my in-laws with technology, and I get it. Microsoft is pushing improvements for people who otherwise wouldn’t do anything for their security or even continuity of operations. Windows hello, for all my gripes with it, gives people a password reset and recovery option for their OS.

But to your point again, I think the TPM requirement should have been phased in more slowly.

Have a great night!

All the way back to Windows NT Microsoft sold extended support for business customers while security updates stopped to the home customer. For the past several major releases Microsoft has a five year mainstream release, 5 year extended support, and then a paid extended period for business. That was the same for Windows 7 as far as I can tell. Honestly, it seems like selling individual esu’s is giving the individual more options. I mean, I don’t get it personally. But if I had some reason to absolutely stay on Windows 10, I would appreciate the option to pay for security updates for years 11, 12, 13+ of the OS.

That being said, I’m not sure who these people are that both love Windows 10 to the point of staying with it past regular support, loath Windows 11, and don’t want to give Linux a try. Like, barring weird technical requirements, that’s a Venn diagram that I just can’t square.

And I’m aware of the shenanigans Windows 11 pulls, but also know the savvy or opinionated user can disable most anything undesirable that makes it different from Windows 10. It’s a bit clicky, but you can disable or hide most things. And if it’s the principle of the thing… Get thee to a nixery!

I highly recommend Stephen Tetlock’s book, super forecasting, who is the sponsor of the project you mention.

One method of forecasting that he identified as effective was using a spreadsheet to record events that might occur over the next 6-18 months along with an initial probability based on good judgement and the factors you quoted. Then, every day look for new information that adjusts the forecast up or down by some, usually small percent. Repeat, and the goal is you will trend towards a reasonable %. I omitted many details but that was the jist.

Now, that’s for forecasting on a short ish timeframe. There is a place for more open ended reasoning and imagination, but you have to be careful not to fall prey to your own biases.

This particular forecast of OPs feels like it is ignoring several long running trends in technology adoption and user behavior without giving events that would address them, and forecasts something they care about doing better in the long-term, a source of bias to watch. I tend to agree with you that I think elements of this forecast are flawed.

Lol, I clearly need more coffee. Good play!

On Futurama one of the popular phrases from the character zoidberg was something like “hey, look it’s me your nephew” when he thought his uncle was rich. Don’t recall the details, but just riffed on the meme.

Look, it’s me, your boss. Venmo: @NotZoidberg.

So you just asked the most confusing thing about AWS service names due to how names changed over time.

Before S3 had an archival tier, there existed a separate service that AWS named AWS Glacier Storage, and then renamed to AWS S3 Glacier.

Around 2012 AWS started adding tiers to S3 which made the standalone service redundant. I received you look at S3 proper unless you have something like a Synology that can directly integrate with the older job based API used by the original glacier service.

So, let’s say I have a 1TB archival file, single tarball, and I upload it to a brand new S3 bucket, without version, special features, etc, except it has a life cycle policy to move objects from S3 standard to S3 Glacier instant access after 0 days. So effectively, I upload the file and it moves to Glacier class storage.

The S3 standard is ~$24/tb/month, and lets say worst case scenario our data sits on standard for one whole day before moving.

$0.77+$0.005 (API cost of the put)

Then there is the lifecycle charge to move the data from standard to glacier, with one request per object each way. Since we only have one object the cost is

$0.004 out of standard
$0.02 into glacier

The cost of glacier instant tier is $4.1/tb/month. Since we would be there all but one day, the cost on the first bill would be:

$3.95

The second month onwards you would pay just the $4.1/month unless you are constantly adding or removing.

Let’s say six months later you download your 1tb archive file. That would incur a cost of up to $30.

Now I know that seems complicated and expensive. It is, because it is providing services to me in my former role as director of engineering, with complex needs and budgets to pay for stuff. It doesn’t make sense as a large-scale backup of personal data, unless you also want to leverage other AWS services, or you are truly just dumping the data away and will likely never need to retrieve it.

S3 is great for complying with HIPAA, feeding data into a cdn, and generally dumping data around in performant way. I’ve literally dropped a petabyte off data into S3 and it just took it and did its thing.

In my personal AWS account I use S3 as a place to dump cache contents built by lambda functions and served up by API gateway. Doing stuff like that is super cheap. I also use private git repos (code commit), private container registry (ecr), and container host (ECS), and it is nice have all of that stuff just click together.

For backing up my personal computer, I use iDrive personal and OneDrive, where I don’t have to worry about the cost per object, etc. iDrive (not an Apple service) let’s you backup multiple devices to their platform and keeps them versioned.

Anyway, happy to help answer questions. Have a great day.

Thanks for posting. I just deployed to my container host in AWS ECS and it’s working well in my testing. Very easy deployment with docker.

It’s complicated. I gave the most expensive pricing, which is their fastest tier and includes stripping across three availability zones and guarantees 11 nines of data durability. Additionally, the easy integration with all other AWS services and the feature richness of S3 buckets makes it hard to do a fair apple to apple comparison unless you really have well defined needs. So I gave the highest price to keep it simple, and for someone who says they just have a few GB, any cost should be trivial.

AWS S3 has a free tier that covers the first 5Gb. I recommend it because the AWS cli is excellent, and gives you lots of options for how to sync your data. The pricing is $0.023/GB/month after the free tier. It can be overwhelming to get into AWS but it is worth it to have access to the ultimate IT service swiss army knife.

I run a lot of tech, containerized workloads in AWS, home firewalls running on protectli boxes for all my family around the country, wireless controllers to run APs for my family around the country, but as I got older one thing I stopped rolling my own instance of was data backups. My data backs up to OneDrive and iDrive, so two copies of my data. My wife has access to both via shared credentials in a 1password folder that she knows how to access and uses regularly.

As I got older and I had a family, the pictures of our kids, wills, financial records, insurance documents are all just too important. Every service that holds my data is paid annually for less than $200/year total and auto renews. She could call either company and prove ownership if she ever did need help getting access. Also, I can easily share folders to her.

It’s funny how getting older makes you think of the sorts of issues enterprise teams have. Don’t implement solutions where you will be one deep, have a succession plan, and complexity is the enemy. All the tech I run now is fun and helpful, but can be replaced with a trip to BestBuy. The data and pictures however must be easy to retrieve for her.

So I don’t have a good self hosted solution for you other than to say that at some point it’s ok to change your strategy. And if you are worried about privacy, you can encrypt subsets of your data locally before it is backed up.

That seems reasonable. I also think it stems from my idea of ownership being a standalone house, and didn’t include things like owned apartments, flats, condos, etc that would make up a large state of ownership in big cities.

It’s not that I didn’t think anyone had the means, but that there would be a lower percent than they have due to wealth inequality. And yes, we are a product of our environment, and much of the western media covers the bad behavior of oligarchs. I don’t routinely get exposed to contemporary slice of life vignettes of other countries.

Lastly, when you try and shame others for showing that they learn, challenge the internal biases that we all have, and change their own opinions, you only serve to show others the calcified state of your own perceptions.

I was surprised as well. It would be worth confirming the dates from a second source, but there are some ready possible explanations for it as well. It could show a large number of multigenerational households. It could relate to the distribution of the population in high and low cost areas (rural vs urban likely). So it does seem high, but not impossible.

Cheers!

So your comment made me go “lol, imagine buying a house in Russia.” Meaning my preconceptions were that most in Russia didn’t have the means to own a home.

But then I’m like, I don’t actually know that, let’s check it out.

According to this site home ownership in Russia is over 90%. So what you outlined is a real problem for people there, and changes some of my mental picture of Russian life.

The more you know!

One thing I’ll add is I often found it helpful to glide them in which helps straighten the wires, then pull them out and trim the ends to be even. Then put back in connector, and make sure all pins touch all wire ends.

You could copy and paste a list of historical events from Wikipedia and spark a flame war, unfortunately.

That’s about the gist of it. Either you are taking it seriously, or using humor to cope. The line between the two isn’t always clear.