miket

I doubt Wagner will be disbanded, they’ll be absorbed or forced right into the military.

Question is, is it true?

I don’t anticipate this lasting that long. It might be over very soon. Putin will not tolerate any more of this and will go absolutely brutal on the entire leadership if he has to.

Exactly, this is the boss that was complaining to Kremlin and folks on telegram that they’re going to pull from Ukraine because Russian’s military isn’t supplying them with ammo.

They didn’t pull for months, still fought with “almost zero ammo”. They suddenly have ammo now? The same ammo they said they have zero of?

This is the “nothing” I was referring to, I didn’t say they didn’t do anything in general, I’m saying they said a lot of bullshit and did nothing of the sort. Thus, don’t believe what they say in public, because in the background, they’re doing something else.

I’ll clarify what I mean in the original post to “did nothing what they said they were going to do in public”.

That’s nothing in the whole scheme. We’re talking centuries here, not the last 24 years. Stalin, Gorbachev, Lenin, Bolsheviks, Romanov, Czars, Cath the Great, etc.

Rushing can also do more damage than helping; it all depends on what is happening for sure.

However, it is a double-edge sword here. One is that they don’t need to waste limited resources they have (ammo, humans, tanks, etc) on units that may be called back to Russia to help against the rebellion or join the rebellion.

Waiting for that means they’ll fight against much smaller units and so on, which can protect Ukrainian’s soldiers from getting killed as well. So, they should take this time to shore up their offensive, give them breaks, watch for new weaknesses to appear and so on.

Slow and steady can be much more effective than fast and fail.

Remember that many Ukrainians do not want to kill Russians, many of Russian soliders are still their brothers and sisters that were conscripted or forced into this.

It’s all word play, total information control and fog of war; by not attacking Putin directly, they avoid upsetting the Russians that still have total confidence in Putin and maintain that possibility that Wagner could still end up in alliance with Putin anyway, like with Chechens.

Attacking the military talking-heads however, doesn’t risk anything, most Russians don’t really trust the entire regime anyway, just Putin.

Once Wagner have more and more control of Russia, they can just go after Putin.

This is all speculation on my part tho.

They’re on their own side, they’re mercs and loyal to money, just like Wagner. Right now, they’re taking Putin’s money.

However, as soon as Putin’s down or out of money, they’ll switch sides easily.

Keep in mind that Chechens were at some point at war with Putin as well and Putin won that one. Kadyrov’s an ally of Putin at this point.

That is true but that doesn’t bode well for these developing countries either, no one benefits from Wanger taking over Russia, it can go wrong very fast.

The same boss that has said a lot of bullshit in the past several months and did nothing what they said they were going to do in public? (“Out of ammo” example)

He’s a known liar. Don’t believe his BS.

They’re already moving fast toward Moscow. They’re saying they’re in Voronezh already but fog of war means we don’t know for sure for a while.

They’re taking over Rustov because of a huge military supply there.

Considering that they needed Wagner to take over many areas in Ukraine and their military couldn’t do it, it’ll be a huge headache.

It also destroys Putin’s reputation of being in full charge. Think about the impact on the public, Putin has total informational control over Russia and this fucks him over.

Remember, they used to say that Wagner’s head would be cut off quickly if they ever “think” of going against Putin and there you go, it’s all BS.

Full coup won’t end war, the assumption is that Wanger is for peace, it’s a war-fighting merc company, war benefits them.

Zero chances it will end the war. Russians are used to swapping out regimes all the time.

This is just an infighting between two criminals, whoever wins is not going to be better for anyone.

Wanger is war fighting force, they’re not a peace-keeping unit, they’ll keep the war going if it benefits them.

The benefit is a distraction on the Russian military side, it may give the counteroffensive from Ukraine a tiny boost. The real impact is probably negligent, it’s not going to make any major changes.

Also, FYI: it’s not “Ukrainian invasion”, Ukraine isn’t invading anyone.

It’s full-on war between Ukraine and Russia.

The impact on this isn’t going to stop the war, only a surrender/peace agreement and full withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine’s 1991 borders will end the war.

Russians are used to swapping out regimes and leaderships all the time, so this may not change anything and the war against Ukraine can still continue under a different regime.