I think you are over-estimating the anger at Israel in the West. Sure, polls show that a majority of people want a ceasefire. And, of course, people want Israel to minimize civilian casualties. That’s just common human decency.
But war is basically entertainment when you are watching it on TV from thousands of miles away and it isn’t personallly costing you anything. It has always been that way. Therefore, in reality, the average work-a-day adult in the vast majority of the world doesn’t give a shit about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict except in the most abstract way.
It comes down to media and drama, I think. Everybody supported Ukraine when the conflict was fresh and dramatic and the Russians were on the run. Most people still support Ukraine, of course, but now that the conflict has bogged down and is getting less interesting media coverage, people are less interested. Israel and Palestine have captured the media’s interest now and there are lots of human interest stories to mine for clicks, but that will die down soon enough. All the drama of the Trump situation and the 2024 election season is just around the corner. Plus, some other conflict may grab our attention. China is getting pretty aggressive with the Philipinnes. Venezuela might invade Guyana, right in the US’s backyard. So many potentially dramatic events could draw media attention away.
As long as Israel mouths the right platitudes about minimizing civilian casualties and rooting out Hamas terrorists, they’ll be fine with the vast, vast majority of adults, not just in the West, but world-wide.
If this weren’t a global moment of systemic realization - sure. From a cynical, “always bet on the null” perspective, sure, but I can’t agree it boils down to drama.
Something deeper is happening. I’m seeing people who I know for certain wouldn’t know the context of/around settler-colonialism start to synthesize that information into their own national and local contexts.
Something is happening. People are learning - I don’t think the genie is going back in the bottle. Thank god. All that’s left is for people to learn how simple individual praxis can be to start doing and suddenly we’re looking at something very, very wide.
I do agree that there is a major change happening. In my own culture, the former British colonies of Canada, USA, Australia, and New Zealand are all engaging in various forms of truth and reconciliation with their indigenous populations, and that coming-to-terms affects how we perceive the rest of the world. I’m sure this is true in other countries as well.
I would note, however, that this may be closer to the end of a process than the beginning. I don’t know that for a certainty, but I think back on the post-WW2 era when America refused to support efforts by Europeans to maintain control of British, Dutch and French overseas colonies. The anti-colonialist project has been underwayfor some time. One can’t help but wonder if the self-reflection required to address problems at home comes only after criticizing others, and that’s what I mean by being possibly closer to the end of a process. Anyway, that’s a tangent.
Back to current events. As you say, I certainly felt like something was happening during the Arab Spring. I certainly felt like something was happening when we all rallied behind Ukraine after being invaded by imperialist Russia. I felt like something was happening when the Hong Kong democracy protests were in full swing and the world was interested. In all of those cases, autocracy has the upper hand again and the support of Western democracies is cooling off. Also, technology may be favoring the authoritarians rather than the democrats.
I agree with you that the genie doesn’t go back in the bottle with regard to awareness of injustice. That is a major achievement that I do not wish to downplay. But the examples above and the waning of enthusiasm to support these causes once they start to falter is what makes me a bit cynical about what we call people’s “attention span”. There does seem to be a pattern to these events similar to a dramatic arc. If the novel gets bogged down in the middle and we don’t reach the climax in a reasonable amount of time, our attention wanders and we look for a new book, so to speak. Yes, that’s cynical when applied to real events and I hope I’m wrong, but you probably see where I’m coming from.
Israel-Palestine is just not clear cut enough for most people and there is no realistic solution. Israelis and Palestinians appear to be locked in a perpetual conflict and, morally, they trade sides as to who is the “good guy” and who is the “bad guy.”
In terms of force, Palestine can’t end it because they lack the means. Israel can’t end it because they can’t get away with mass killing or deportation for too long. As they say, the world opinion clock is always ticking once Israel launches a new offensive. In terms of diplomacy, it always comes back to the two-state solution. Maybe that will work out someday but no one is holding their breath.
In the meantime, I cannot help coming to the conclusion that the governments of the world, and the vast, vast majority of their people, watch Israel-Palestine mostly with a view towards containment and not letting an actual gas-chamber level genocide happen. Outside of that, we all know that injustice happens every day all over the world (see my examples above), and there is apparently little we can (or will) do about it. The Israel-Palestine conflict is a classic and proven quagmire with no realistic solution unless the Israeli and Palestinian populations want one enough to make major compromises. They aren’t in that state now and haven’t been for at least 15 years (some would say they have never been in that state). Thus, I predict that the world will do little, little will change in terms of the fundamental dynamics of the conflict, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will go back to more-or-less the status quo. I am happy to hear counter-arguments.
I think you are over-estimating the anger at Israel in the West. Sure, polls show that a majority of people want a ceasefire. And, of course, people want Israel to minimize civilian casualties. That’s just common human decency.
But war is basically entertainment when you are watching it on TV from thousands of miles away and it isn’t personallly costing you anything. It has always been that way. Therefore, in reality, the average work-a-day adult in the vast majority of the world doesn’t give a shit about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict except in the most abstract way.
It comes down to media and drama, I think. Everybody supported Ukraine when the conflict was fresh and dramatic and the Russians were on the run. Most people still support Ukraine, of course, but now that the conflict has bogged down and is getting less interesting media coverage, people are less interested. Israel and Palestine have captured the media’s interest now and there are lots of human interest stories to mine for clicks, but that will die down soon enough. All the drama of the Trump situation and the 2024 election season is just around the corner. Plus, some other conflict may grab our attention. China is getting pretty aggressive with the Philipinnes. Venezuela might invade Guyana, right in the US’s backyard. So many potentially dramatic events could draw media attention away.
As long as Israel mouths the right platitudes about minimizing civilian casualties and rooting out Hamas terrorists, they’ll be fine with the vast, vast majority of adults, not just in the West, but world-wide.
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If this weren’t a global moment of systemic realization - sure. From a cynical, “always bet on the null” perspective, sure, but I can’t agree it boils down to drama.
Something deeper is happening. I’m seeing people who I know for certain wouldn’t know the context of/around settler-colonialism start to synthesize that information into their own national and local contexts.
Something is happening. People are learning - I don’t think the genie is going back in the bottle. Thank god. All that’s left is for people to learn how simple individual praxis can be to start doing and suddenly we’re looking at something very, very wide.
I do agree that there is a major change happening. In my own culture, the former British colonies of Canada, USA, Australia, and New Zealand are all engaging in various forms of truth and reconciliation with their indigenous populations, and that coming-to-terms affects how we perceive the rest of the world. I’m sure this is true in other countries as well.
I would note, however, that this may be closer to the end of a process than the beginning. I don’t know that for a certainty, but I think back on the post-WW2 era when America refused to support efforts by Europeans to maintain control of British, Dutch and French overseas colonies. The anti-colonialist project has been underwayfor some time. One can’t help but wonder if the self-reflection required to address problems at home comes only after criticizing others, and that’s what I mean by being possibly closer to the end of a process. Anyway, that’s a tangent.
Back to current events. As you say, I certainly felt like something was happening during the Arab Spring. I certainly felt like something was happening when we all rallied behind Ukraine after being invaded by imperialist Russia. I felt like something was happening when the Hong Kong democracy protests were in full swing and the world was interested. In all of those cases, autocracy has the upper hand again and the support of Western democracies is cooling off. Also, technology may be favoring the authoritarians rather than the democrats.
I agree with you that the genie doesn’t go back in the bottle with regard to awareness of injustice. That is a major achievement that I do not wish to downplay. But the examples above and the waning of enthusiasm to support these causes once they start to falter is what makes me a bit cynical about what we call people’s “attention span”. There does seem to be a pattern to these events similar to a dramatic arc. If the novel gets bogged down in the middle and we don’t reach the climax in a reasonable amount of time, our attention wanders and we look for a new book, so to speak. Yes, that’s cynical when applied to real events and I hope I’m wrong, but you probably see where I’m coming from.
Israel-Palestine is just not clear cut enough for most people and there is no realistic solution. Israelis and Palestinians appear to be locked in a perpetual conflict and, morally, they trade sides as to who is the “good guy” and who is the “bad guy.”
In terms of force, Palestine can’t end it because they lack the means. Israel can’t end it because they can’t get away with mass killing or deportation for too long. As they say, the world opinion clock is always ticking once Israel launches a new offensive. In terms of diplomacy, it always comes back to the two-state solution. Maybe that will work out someday but no one is holding their breath.
In the meantime, I cannot help coming to the conclusion that the governments of the world, and the vast, vast majority of their people, watch Israel-Palestine mostly with a view towards containment and not letting an actual gas-chamber level genocide happen. Outside of that, we all know that injustice happens every day all over the world (see my examples above), and there is apparently little we can (or will) do about it. The Israel-Palestine conflict is a classic and proven quagmire with no realistic solution unless the Israeli and Palestinian populations want one enough to make major compromises. They aren’t in that state now and haven’t been for at least 15 years (some would say they have never been in that state). Thus, I predict that the world will do little, little will change in terms of the fundamental dynamics of the conflict, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will go back to more-or-less the status quo. I am happy to hear counter-arguments.