I can accept the fact that on a Roulette wheel (as long as there are no defects or imbalances in the wheel or ball) that the odds are the same each spin and previous spin outcomes have no influence over the current spin. However, if I see black come up 32 times in a row I am betting on red for the next spin.
People will claim that you’re wrong, but you’re 100% correct. It’s always 50-50. You either win, or you don’t.
The important thing is that the host will always show you a goat, meaning the only way the other door has another goat is if you just so happened to pick the car the first time.
Take the situation to the extreme and imagine a hundred doors, and after you pick a door, the host opens 98 doors, all of them with goats behind them. Now which seems more likely, that you chose right the first time, or that the other door has the car?
My comment is clearly sarcastic…