I think it’s wishful thinking or propaganda. Putin still has a lot of popular support. He’s in a more tenuous position than he’s ever been in his time in power, but he still seems to have firm grasp of the levers of power for now.
That’s the thing. We have never had particularly good spy networks in Russia. During the cold war, it was nearly zero. It was easy for them to get an american to sell out for cash, and it was a lot harder to get a Russian to sell out since their families would be killed.
There’s a great book by Anne Jacobsen called The Pentagon’s Brain that discussed in depth the nonsense that we paid for as “studies” on the cold war and Vietnam. Basically, the generals would direct studies and funding to scientists who supported the arms race war narrative, with nearly no ability to get good information. So most of our “intelligence” was speculation. And turned out to be completely wrong once stuff was declassified.
Isn’t this why some of the US technology became so good? They would hear the new MIG aircraft could do some incredible new things (it couldn’t) but they went off designing and building aircraft in response to counter these just in case.
For sure. The arms race was real…we were just sprinting the whole thing and had more manufacturing capabilities still spun up from the war, while Russia was decimated and we just didn’t know.
The number one requirement for a civil war would require either the military or the populace to rise up against the government. We sorta had the first thing happen and it definitely revealed some major cracks in the Russian dictatorship but the Russian people are still largely compliant. I’m not saying it’s completely far fetched, but “on the edge” really does seem a bit exaggerated. On the other hand, it’s definitely the closest it’s been since Putin came to power. Maybe it’s all relative.
a lot will rely on wether or not the army will continue to support the war as ukraine slowly regains their territory, they gain more and more western tools and russian vehicle attrition continues
You can be ousted with a lot of popular support if you really piss off a small number of people. A leader has more wiggle room with high popular support and a strong military and police force, but if those institutions weaken, then the possibility of a violent overthrow increases.
Russia’s population is ~143 million. If even 1 in 1000 people take up arms, that’s a 143,000 strong army. If 1% participate in a general revolt, that’s 1.4 million people, which could easily overwhelm institutions and bring an already weakened economy down.
I think it’s wishful thinking or propaganda. Putin still has a lot of popular support. He’s in a more tenuous position than he’s ever been in his time in power, but he still seems to have firm grasp of the levers of power for now.
Yeah, I would not get my hopes up. This dude is prolly just trolling.
That being said, Russia has been know to collapse overnight lol
That’s the thing. We have never had particularly good spy networks in Russia. During the cold war, it was nearly zero. It was easy for them to get an american to sell out for cash, and it was a lot harder to get a Russian to sell out since their families would be killed.
There’s a great book by Anne Jacobsen called The Pentagon’s Brain that discussed in depth the nonsense that we paid for as “studies” on the cold war and Vietnam. Basically, the generals would direct studies and funding to scientists who supported the arms race war narrative, with nearly no ability to get good information. So most of our “intelligence” was speculation. And turned out to be completely wrong once stuff was declassified.
Isn’t this why some of the US technology became so good? They would hear the new MIG aircraft could do some incredible new things (it couldn’t) but they went off designing and building aircraft in response to counter these just in case.
For sure. The arms race was real…we were just sprinting the whole thing and had more manufacturing capabilities still spun up from the war, while Russia was decimated and we just didn’t know.
It sometimes went the other way as well - see the Buran
Please read “The Spy and The Traitor.” Interesting nonfiction on a Russian that spied for Britain during the cold war.
I’ll check that out. Thanks for the recommendation!
The number one requirement for a civil war would require either the military or the populace to rise up against the government. We sorta had the first thing happen and it definitely revealed some major cracks in the Russian dictatorship but the Russian people are still largely compliant. I’m not saying it’s completely far fetched, but “on the edge” really does seem a bit exaggerated. On the other hand, it’s definitely the closest it’s been since Putin came to power. Maybe it’s all relative.
a lot will rely on wether or not the army will continue to support the war as ukraine slowly regains their territory, they gain more and more western tools and russian vehicle attrition continues
You can be ousted with a lot of popular support if you really piss off a small number of people. A leader has more wiggle room with high popular support and a strong military and police force, but if those institutions weaken, then the possibility of a violent overthrow increases.
Russia’s population is ~143 million. If even 1 in 1000 people take up arms, that’s a 143,000 strong army. If 1% participate in a general revolt, that’s 1.4 million people, which could easily overwhelm institutions and bring an already weakened economy down.